Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Pzt, 09.01.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND FEATURES SHOWING WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED
BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A MODEST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND PAGASA RADAR
IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. CURRENTLY TD 01W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR-
TERM LAND INTERACTION WILL DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW,
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. BEYOND TAU
24 THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER OPEN, AND RELATIVELY WARM, WATER
ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48 HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND A NORTHERN COLD
SURGE WILL BRING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. TD 01W WILL FULLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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Fırtına rotaları Paz, 08.01.

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