Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Per, 27.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT
RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER A PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED COMPACT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261735Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS LOW REFLECTIVITY BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON A PREVIOUS BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PRODUCT
SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND IS SUPPORTED
BY RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES NEAR 45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RECENT ASCAT PASSES HAVE
SHOWN AN ELONGATION OF THE LLCC WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS PREVENTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TS 03W IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STRONG OUTFLOW AND
LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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