**THIS FORECAST IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY. ANY ACTIONS YOU MAY TAKE ARE ENTIRELY AT YOUR OWN RISK**
SHORT TERM SITUATION (All times GMT):
A weak ridge of high pressure is going to be through the region during the course of tomorrow morning, as a weakening cold front clears into northwestern France. The ridge should last through the central Channel area for most of the day, although a deepening area of low pressure is expected to be off southwest Ireland by the evening. The warm front running ahead of the low will be close to Brest by 0001hrs Sunday. This low will be deepening through the early hours of Sunday morning, and will then travel eastwards up the English Channel to be close to Lyme Bay by midday Sunday. Strong to gale force winds surround the low, together with heavy periods of rain. The low continues to move eastwards, so that by midday Monday it will be over the Netherlands, with a strong north to northwesterly flow through the Channel areas.
MEDIUM TERM SITUATION:
Current thinking is that the low will be loitering around the British Isles and Ireland during the week. It will tend to drift back northwards through the North Sea, then westwards over northern England and eventually into Ireland. This will be leading to an unsettled period of weather throughout the Channel area, although the winds should be lighter and the rain more showery.
DISCUSSION OF THE WEEKEND 'LOW':
Models have been fairly consistent in bringing the low through the Channel during the course of the afternoon on Sunday. Timings have been fairly consistent too. What will be critical for you is the exact position of the low. If it is a little further north, winds along the north coasts of France could be increased to gale force, a little further south, and they could be light and variable as the low passes. Whatever, it is advisable to be in port from late Sunday until early Monday.
If you can get the Deauville by late Saturday evening then you should avoid the worse weather. make sure you are safely in harbour through Sunday and Monday as winds will be to gale force, rain will be heavy and visibility poor.
SATURDAY (Chichester to Deauville):
Winds: Mainly F4 but F5 in open sea, soon easing to NW F3 through the late morning, then slowly backing W F3-F4 in the afternoon before becmg WSW F3-F4 in the evening.
Weather: Broken cloud and sunny spells, with little change through the day
Sea: Moderate, locally choppy at first, then moderate, perhaps slight later.
SUNDAY (Deauville area):
Winds: SW F3 then becmg SSW F6 by daybreak, then cyclonic F6-F7 as the low passes close by, then NW F6 gust F8 by late afternoon and evening
Weather: Heavy rain sweeping in, perhaps turning more showery through the afternoon
Vis: P in rain
Sea: Choppy by dark, then rough to very rough from morning onwards
MONDAY (Deauville area):
Winds: NW F6 gust F8 overnight, becmg NW F6 by morning, then NW F5-F6 in afternoon
Weather: Rain slowly clearing to scattered showers and sunny spells
Vis: M or P in rain, then G but M in showers
Sea: Rough to very rough.
TUESDAY (Deauville area):
Winds: NW F5, bacmking W F4-F5 by morning, then WSW F4 later
Weather: Sunny spells and scattered showers
Vis: G but M in showers
Sea: Choppy to rough, then moderating thorugh the morning.
WEDNESDAY (Deauville area):
Winds: Becoming SW then S F4-F5 overnight, increasing F6 poss gust F7 by morning as warm front passes north, then SW F4-F5 in afternoon
Weather: Fair at first, then rain as front passes north, to be followed by drizzle, although slowly brightening in afternoon
Vis: G then M or P in rain and drizzle, possibly M later
Sea: Moderate then increasing choppy, locally rough offshore.
Surface pressure chart for 7am Saturday morning showing the ridge building
from the west
By midday Sunday the low is off the Isle of Wight
Chart for midnight Monday showing gales through much of the Channel as the
low clears east