Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Paz, 17.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS INTACT AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE ISLAND OF SAMAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR AND ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE INTENSITY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
INUNDATED WITH STRONG (30+ KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
HOWEVER, A ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
DISPLACED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 32W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. IN THE NEAR
TERM, TS 32W WILL STRUGGLE AS STRONG VWS PERSISTS AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRACKS OVER THE VISAYAN ISLANDS. AT BEST, IT WILL
MAINTAIN TS INTENSITY- FUELED BY STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48,
TS 32W WILL EMERGE AND RE-CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST WEST OF PALAWAN. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
SSTS, VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND PROMOTE A SLIGHT
RE-INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE EXPOSED TO A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT IN
THE SCS WHICH CAN POTENTIALLY HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT BUT, AT THE VERY
LEAST, WILL ALSO EXPAND THE 35-KNOT WIND RADII.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL REACH GALE FORCE
AND BEGIN TO ABSORB AND ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO GRADUAL DECAY.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING AT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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