Tropical Storm PABUK Advisory Çar, 25.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TY 19W HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
HAS FORMED A 25-NM EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. CONSEQUENTLY,
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS PLUS A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 82 KNOTS. A 241752Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER JAPAN. TY 19W IS ACCELERATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-
CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH ONLY A 25 NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TY 19W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 12, TY 19W
WILL ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48
AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GROUPING.//
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