MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT 271744Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS EXPOSED, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN IR IMAGERY AND INTERPOLATED FROM A 271308Z PARTIAL ASCAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THIS SYSTEMS HISTORY OF POSSIBLE MULTIPLE VORTICES AND LLCC DISPLACEMENT FROM THE CENTRALIZED CONVECTION, THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LLCC RE-APPEARING BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY COMES IN, IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNDER 20 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND PRESSURE FROM A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR, POLEWARD OUT FLOW IS COMPLETELY CUT OFF, AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS TO SHALLOW AND TO FAR POLEWARD FOR TS 07W TO TAP INTO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. B. TS 07W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP EAST-WEST ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER TAIWAN AND EASTERN CHINA. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TS 07W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE OHC AND SST CONDITIONS, BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND GFS WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER WEST TOWARD HAINAN BEFORE LANDFALL, AND EGRR WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND DEPICTION OF THE STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS IN LINE WITH ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND JGSM, AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN