Tropical Storm DOKSURI Advisory Per, 28.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT 271744Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS EXPOSED,
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH
IS NOW BEGINNING TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN IR IMAGERY AND INTERPOLATED FROM A
271308Z PARTIAL ASCAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  BASED ON THIS SYSTEMS
HISTORY OF POSSIBLE MULTIPLE VORTICES AND LLCC DISPLACEMENT FROM THE
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION, THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LLCC RE-APPEARING
BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY COMES IN, IS NOT OUT
OF QUESTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND RJTD.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT UNDER 20 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND PRESSURE FROM A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR, POLEWARD OUT FLOW IS
COMPLETELY CUT OFF, AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS TO SHALLOW AND TO FAR POLEWARD FOR TS 07W TO
TAP INTO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
(OHC) REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 07W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP EAST-WEST ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH EXTENDS
WESTWARD OVER TAIWAN AND EASTERN CHINA. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TS
07W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG. TS 07W IS
EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE OHC AND SST CONDITIONS, BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
THE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFDN AND GFS WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER WEST TOWARD HAINAN
BEFORE LANDFALL, AND EGRR WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER TAU 24, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND
DEPICTION OF THE STR.  THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS IN LINE WITH ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND JGSM, AND IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.//
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