MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 10// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CURVED NOTCH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE INDICATING THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE NOTCH IN THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY THE 221732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM 31 TO 33 KNOTS AT SANYA FENGHUANG (ZJSY), CHINA (SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HAINAN). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL TO POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS KUJIRA IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 08W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES HAINAN ISLAND AND ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED VWS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA, WHERE IT WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN