Tropical Storm TOKAGE Advisory Cts, 26.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TOKAGE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, TS 29W SHOULD SLOW AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE. AT
THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE EVENT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING SURGE
EVENT AFTER TAU 48.//
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