MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 14// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE TOPS, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, HAVE SLIGHTLY DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PARTIAL EYE FEATURE ON A 201620Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN. AFTERWARDS, THE STR WILL BUILD AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CHINESE EASTERN SEABOARD. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN, AND LATER ON WITH THE CHINESE COAST, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR SHANGHAI. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN