MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENING TREND AND SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EIR ANIMATION AND 221646Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). FUNG-WONG IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. B. TS FUNG-WONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND SPEEDING UP AS THE SYSTEM GETS ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. AS TS 16W STARTS TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, IT WILL BECOME A WEAK COLD-CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, 06Z ON THE 24TH. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN