Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Pzt, 29.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WRAPPED, SLIGHTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 281639Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS SOME MODERATE CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THIS IMAGE AND THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A 281105Z ASCAT IMAGE
AS THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE AS THIS SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITHIN MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 17W CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE, LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. KAMMURI IS WELL NORTH
OF THE STR AXIS AND CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TS 17W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND, AS SUCH,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
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