Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Çar, 23.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS TY 10W HAS MADE LANDFALL WITH TAIWAN IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. DUE TO THE TERRAIN OF TAIWAN THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EXPANSION
IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, BUT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THE
SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING
OBSERVED IN EIR, AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS TAIWAN. TY 10W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES TAIWAN
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
CAUSE TY 10W TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. DUE TO THE QUICK TRACK OVER THE
TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RE-
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AROUND TAU 12, WITH
LANDFALL INTO CHINA, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 10W, WITH FULL
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THE REMNANTS OF TY 10W WILL INTERACT
WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
ABSORPTION OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE BOUNDARY BEYOND TAU 48. BASED ON
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
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