Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory Cts, 11.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 42//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DECAYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
18-NM EYE, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
HOWEVER, THE IR LOOP HIGHLIGHTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH
WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS AND DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF INCREASING VWS (20-30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, IT
WILL RECURVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YELLOW SEA TOWARDS THE KOREAN
DMZ AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND COOLING
SSTS. TY 09W WILL LIKELY REDUCE TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF SOUTH KOREA. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK BUT POOR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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