MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 27// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED BY HIGH VWS, DISPLACING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD AND FULLY EXPOSING A RAGGED LLCC. ADDITIONALLY THE IR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN VIEW OF MORE RECENT DATA, OTHERWISE, THE TRACK FORECAST CONFORMS WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY, REACHING 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 96; AFTERWARDS, COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TS 01C TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE VWS AND OUTFLOW.// NNNN NNNN