MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 51// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION (APPROXIMATELY 50 TO 60 NM DIAMETER) SURROUNDING A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 221647Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI- CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY HINDERED DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS. TY 01C CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. THE 22/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N 142E WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO TAIWAN WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE WEST SEA. IN GENERAL, THIS PATTERN OF STRONG RIDGING HAS MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO ANALYSIS OF UPPER-LEVEL DATA SHOWING A PERSISTENT, DEEP-LAYERED STR. WIND RADII, PARTICULARLY 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT, HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND REFLECT A SMALL CORE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY (RE-CURVE SCENARIO) REMAINS UNCHANGED. B. TY HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, ANALYSIS DATA PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE OF A STRONG, PERSISTENT STR WITH NO DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMMINENT, WHICH WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CONSEQUENTLY, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE MORE RELIABLE JGSM, GFS, AEMN AND ECMWF TRACKERS NOW SUPPORTING A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND NORTH OF KYUSHU, JAPAN. NAVGEM, GFDN AND COAMPS-TC HAVE REMAINED HIGHLY ERRATIC AND ARE CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. TY 01C IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 24, THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AND RE-CURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND BEGINS TO TRACK INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM. TY 01C WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS, COLD SST (23 TO 25C) AND INCREASED LAND INTERACTION. TY 01C IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 DUE TO VERY COLD SST AND STRONG VWS. THERE IS NO BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OR A RAPID ACCELERATION SCENARIO. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, THEREFORE, THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE AND LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN