Tropical Storm DUJUAN Advisory Paz, 27.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE WITH COOLER
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A LARGE 33NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MORE
SYMMETRIC CORE STRUCTURE WITH DECREASED DRY AIR IMPACTING THE
TYPHOON. HOWEVER, SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST IS
CAUSING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN FRONT. A 261750Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED OFF MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VWS. TY DUJUAN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SYSTEM. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24, TY 21W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOWER OHC VALUES,
AN INCREASE IN VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF TAIWAN. DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A LEEWARD JUMP SCENARIO AS
THE TYPHOON PASSES THROUGH TAIWAN, THERE IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
THE TAU 48 POSITION. BY TAU 72, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES THROUGH SOUTHEAST CHINA.
   C. EXPECT COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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