Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory Cu, 22.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INTO A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A DOPPLER COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 AND SUPPORTED BY NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), DUAL OUTFLOW,  AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EAST
CENTRAL MINDANAO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN TRACK ACROSS INTO THE
SULU SEA, CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF PALAWAN JUST BEFORE TAU 48. BY
TAU 72, TS 33W WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MIDWAY BETWEEN PALAWAN
AND SOUTH VIETNAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, INITIALLY, LAND
INTERACTION WITH MINDANAO WILL MOMENTARILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY, PEAKING
AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN VIETNAM
WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. TS TEMBIN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH AFTER TAU 96 AND BY TAU 120, WILL EXIT INTO THE
GULF OF THAILAND JUST SOUTH OF CAMBODIA AND REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 72,
OTHERWISE THERE IS A TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
LEADING TO AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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