MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 14// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HONG KONG RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TS 07W MADE LANDFALL WEST OF HONG KONG NEAR 29/18Z. AS TS 07W TRACKED 30 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A PEAK OF 27 KNOTS (SUSTAINED) GUSTING TO 38 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 998 MB. A 291409Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT DATA BUT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE HONG KONG RADAR FIXES AND IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS), NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS SHEARING DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER. TS 07W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN