Tropical Storm DOKSURI Advisory Cts, 30.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND HONG KONG RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TS 07W MADE LANDFALL WEST
OF HONG KONG NEAR 29/18Z. AS TS 07W TRACKED 30 NM SOUTH OF HONG
KONG, SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A PEAK OF 27 KNOTS (SUSTAINED)
GUSTING TO 38 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 998 MB. A 291409Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT DATA BUT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE HONG KONG RADAR
FIXES AND IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS), NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS SHEARING DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF
THE CENTER. TS 07W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
DUE TO STRONG VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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