Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Cts, 09.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081714Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 07W IS BEING STEERED IN AN ATYPICAL EASTWARD
DIRECTION BY ENHANCED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF DECREASING VWS, INCREASING WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPCOMING TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ASSOCIATED TRACK SPEEDS.  THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS
CONSISTENT WITH A GROUPING OF MODELS THAT INCLUDES A MAJORITY OF
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND NOTED
MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD, IN TERMS OF
TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED, REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH NO APPARENT PRIMARY GROUPING. FOR THIS REASON, THE
EXTENDED JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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