MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 09// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081714Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 07W IS BEING STEERED IN AN ATYPICAL EASTWARD DIRECTION BY ENHANCED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF DECREASING VWS, INCREASING WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPCOMING TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS CONSISTENT WITH A GROUPING OF MODELS THAT INCLUDES A MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS. BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND NOTED MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD, IN TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED, REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NO APPARENT PRIMARY GROUPING. FOR THIS REASON, THE EXTENDED JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN