Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Per, 14.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE EYE FEATURE, BUT STILL
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 131631Z NOOA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON DOLPHIN HAS MOVED INTO AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING
OFFSET BY THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR, MODIFYING AND SLIGHTLY SHIFTING
TY 07W NORTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE,
LEADING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE MODIFIED STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
AND REORIENT TO THE EAST ALLOWING TYPHOON 07W TO TURN POLEWARD. THIS
POLEWARD TRACK WILL EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL
WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TRIGGERING
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSESUS.//
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