MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR 14// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR), ALONG WITH A 301539Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, REVEALS A DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED OVER 30 NM FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND IS AVERAGED BETWEEN FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED TO COMPLETELY OFFSET VIGOROUS WESTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS TAPAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT DAY BEFORE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID- LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF PERSISTENTLY STRONG VWS, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ABSORPTION INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN