Tropical Storm TAPAH Advisory Per, 01.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR),
ALONG WITH A 301539Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, REVEALS A DEFINED AND
TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED OVER 30
NM FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED NATURE
OF THE LLCC AND IS AVERAGED BETWEEN FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING
TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG (30
TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED TO COMPLETELY
OFFSET VIGOROUS WESTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TAPAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT DAY BEFORE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF PERSISTENTLY
STRONG VWS, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ABSORPTION INTO
THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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