MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281624Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TD 11W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. CONTINUED GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO TYPHOON STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND SST ARE CONDUCIVE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND THE TRACK AT EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN