Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory Sa, 29.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281624Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TD 11W TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. CONTINUED GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND SST ARE CONDUCIVE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND THE
TRACK AT EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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