Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory Çar, 01.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
BANDING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TRACK
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW BUT STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES
AND RJTD INCREASING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MAIN STEERING
INFLUENCE APPEARS TO BE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE NER IS SLOWLY BUILDING NORTHWESTWARD
PUSHING TY 10W TOWARDS THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
TRACK SPEED HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN THIS
POORLY DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN WELL
ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND IS HELPING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN INTENSITY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36 THE STR TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE CAUSING THE TRACK
TO SHIFT MORE WESTWARD WITH A SUBSEQUENT SPEED INCREASE. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK NEAR 29C ALLOWING FOR TY 10W TO INTENSIFY
TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SLIGHTLY
AFTER TAU 48, WITH FRICTIONAL FORCES STARTING TO WEAKEN TY 10W
THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72 TY 10W SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS AND IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SLOWS MORE QUICKLY ONCE TY 10W MAKES LANDFALL.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT; HOWEVER IT IS
IMPROVING.//
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