Tropical Storm HAIKUI Advisory Paz, 05.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AS BROKEN
BANDS EXTENDING THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE RADAR
DEPICTION FROM OKINAWA SHOWS A MULTITUDE OF BANDS CROSSING OVER
OKINAWA AND INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS 12W IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND IS TRACKING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TO INDICATE TS
12W IS PARTIALLY ENCAPSULATED BY A WEAKENING RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALONG
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS). THE OUTFLOW REMAINS
MARGINAL OVER THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72.
INTENSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SLOW AND STEADY UNDER WEAK VWS AND WARM
(28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NGPS AND GFDN CONTINUING TO
SHOW A TIGHT POLEWARD TURN BY TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. DISSIPATION WILL BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS FRICTIONAL
DRAG INCREASES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVING HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD AFTER TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NGPS AND GFDN DISCUSSED EARLIER, THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TS 12W OVER LAND. A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS BUT
AT THIS TIME THE MAGNITUDE OF INTERACTION REMAINS UNCLEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AGAIN
INTERACT WITH THE STR BY THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY MARK, WHICH IS
DEPICTED WITHIN THE FORECAST BY THE SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT
TAU 120. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY THE TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
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