MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 02 RELOCATED// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS OF 30 KNOTS BASED ON A 121216Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION CENTER. TD 14W LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST HAS ALSO SPURRED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 14W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHER PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES FARTHER POLEWARD IN THE EARLY TAUS AND DEPICTS A SHARPER WESTWARD TURN IN THE LATER TAUS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS CHANGE REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS OF A MORE CONTINUOUS ZONAL STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. B. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL VIE WITH IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO HOLD INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEVELOP A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CHINA, FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TD 14W WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL. THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF TD 14W, ALTHOUGH MOST DEPICT A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE ISLAND OF TAIWAN WITH THE WBAR REMAINING THE EXTREME WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE CONTINUOUS STEERING RIDGE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT ANALYSIS AND SYNOPTIC FORECAST REASONING. GIVEN GENERALLY POOR AGREEMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE AID PACKAGE, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NNNN NNNN