MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 06 RELOCATED// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A CENTER OF MASS POSITION FROM A COMBINATION OF A 131454Z OSCAT IMAGE, PGTW AND RJTD FIXES, A 131405Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE, AND THE ABOVEMENTIONED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS 45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS ON THE 131454Z OSCAT IMAGE. TS 14W LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF OKINAWA. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A 131200Z UPPER LEVEL SOUNDING FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA CONFIRMS EASTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE 131200Z POSITION, AS WELL AS THE BEST TRACK POSITIONS FROM THE PAST 48 HOURS, HAVE BEEN CHANGED BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA. B. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN TAIWAN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (> 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). THIS WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. AT TAU 48, KAI-TAK IS EXPECTED TO ENTER A REGION OF LIGHT (5-10 KNOT) VWS, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF TAIWAN, POTENTIALLY DECREASING INTENSITY. THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THIS STORM. AFTER TAU 48, 14W WILL ENTER A REGION OF INCREASING VWS (10-20 KNOTS) AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. C. AT TAU 72, KAI-TAK IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS, WHICH TRACKS 14W OVER TAIPEI BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN CHINA NEAR 27N. WBAR REMAINS THE LEFT OUTLIER IN EARLY TAUS WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE AFTER TAU 48. THIS FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AND FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSIS OF THE STEERING PATTERN. BASED ON CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE AID PACKAGE, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.// NNNN NNNN