MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED BY HIGH VWS, DISPLACING THE
CONVECTION EASTWARD AND FULLY EXPOSING A RAGGED LLCC. ADDITIONALLY
THE IR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A
TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN
VIEW OF MORE RECENT DATA, OTHERWISE, THE TRACK FORECAST CONFORMS WITH
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE.
B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE VWS
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 96;
AFTERWARDS, COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TS
01C TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE VWS AND OUTFLOW.//
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