Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Çar, 17.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
INFRARED SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 161627Z AMSU-B
PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES.
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TS 23W HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO SHEAR EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
TS 23W IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT WARNING CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION VICE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE STEADY WEAKENING, RESULTING IN
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH EACH DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION TO
THE STEERING FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL PROBABILITY THAT TS 23W WILL TRACK
EQUATORWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER
TAU 72. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AT THAT
POINT AND IS NOT LIKELY TO REGENERATE.//
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