Tropical Storm SON-TINH Advisory Çar, 24.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BUILDING TOWARDS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 231542Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATES A SLIGHT ELONGATION OF THE LLCC ALONG THE EAST-WEST AXIS
WITH A MAJORITY OF THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER BEING RAIN FLAGGED.
HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS BUT
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE LLCC AND IS
PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN AMPLIFYING THE
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD PORTIONS OF THE RADIAL OUTFLOW. TD 24W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) THROUGH TAU 72. WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER THE ISLANDS OF CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES. THIS LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TD 24W MOVES OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SCS
WHERE THE LLCC WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL WARM MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE
SULU SEA AND SCS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER THE SCS, THE LLCC
WILL BEGIN TO REORGANIZE, ALLOWING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 72. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
NORTHEASTERN COLD DRY AIR CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE SCS. THIS AIR
MASS WILL HINDER THE AVAILABILITY OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COAST OF VIETNAM
AROUND TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EFFECTS OF CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES EARLY IN
THE WARNING AND THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST SURGE IN THE MID TO
LATE TAUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON
TIGHT GROUPING OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.//
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