Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory Paz, 06.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CLOUD CANOPY
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CDO HAS DEEPENED IN
THE LAST 12 HOURS AS EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINED STEADY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PINHOLE MICROWAVE
EYE ON A 051713Z TRMM PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
TO REFLECT THE DEVELOPING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR. AFTER
TAU 36, TY 23W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE
POLEWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY DANAS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS A STORM-FORCE BAROCLINIC LOW AND CROSS THE SEA OF
JAPAN AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR
VARIATIONS ON THE RECURVE POINT. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER RECURVATURE.   //
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