Tropical Storm NARI Advisory Çar, 09.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
575 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 081558Z TRMM 37GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND A
081828Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TD 24W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HWRF, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS LUZON. HWRF IS THE SOLE OUTLIER AND
INDICATES AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36, WHICH IS DEEMED UNLIKELY
DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STR. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS.
THEREAFTER, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 24W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
UNTIL IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES TO AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
TD 24W SHOULD TURN ONTO A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR. BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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