Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Pzt, 15.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS CENTRALIZED BANDING IS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY BUT REMAINS STRAINED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS WAS BASED ON A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE DUAL CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
TY 22W BETWEEN TAU 24 TO 36. DUE TO THE QUICK TRACK SPEED THE
INTERACTION WILL BE LIMITED AS TS 23W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL SEE WEAK
INTENSIFICATION AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY TY 22W TO
THE NORTHWEST. BEFORE TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ERODE DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 23W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THEN BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD
CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AFTER MOVING NORTH
OF THE STR AXIS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE INTERACTION WITH TY 22W AND THE MODEL
VARIANCE.//
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