MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A SLOWLY- DEVELOPING LLCC. A 012327Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 10W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 10W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXTENSION OF THE STR. MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST; HOWEVER, WARM STT AND HIGH OHC VALUES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE, LEADING TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TD 10W. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN