Tropical Storm KRISTY Advisory Per, 13.09.

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2012

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2       7      31      49      49
TROP DEPRESSION  8      12      12      31      40      35      34
TROPICAL STORM  90      77      68      54      27      16      16
HURRICANE        3      10      18       9       2       X       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3       9      15       7       2       X       1
HUR CAT 2        X       1       3       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    55KT    45KT    30KT    20KT    20KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   5( 5)  15(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   4( 4)  12(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MAZATLAN       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN BLAS       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P VALLARTA     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   9(10)  10(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA