Tropical Storm FOURTEEN Advisory Sa, 04.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
ALMOST VOID OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MODERATE WESTERLY VWS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENGULFS THE SYSTEM, INCREASING THE VWS AND
PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL CAUSE TD 14W TO WEAKEN AND FULLY
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY
SOONER. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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