Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Pzt, 16.01.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 151439Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED
LLCC WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A
151352Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND 10 TO 15
KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS
FROM RJTD, PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW. TD 01W
IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT
NEARS VIETNAM DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT,
ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION, WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM
INTENSIFYING AND LEAD TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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