Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Çar, 19.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 12-NM DIAMETER
EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY THAT ARE OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR,
SHIFTING TY 16W POLEWARD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION IN
THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 24, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LOWER OHC
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
DUE TO A BREAK IN THE STR. WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS DEGRADED
CONDITIONS PERSIST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN THE
LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD
TURN, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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