Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN Advisory Paz, 25.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH
SUPER-DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 7-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR
AND ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED VERY INTENSE EIR SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
AS EVIDENCED IN TPW IMAGERY, DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72-HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND AFTER TAU 12 THEN DRAG
ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON INCLUDING BICOL REGION, PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF MANILA BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). STY NOCK-
TEN WILL INITIALLY GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL STILL BE AT 80-KNOT TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL BEGIN CURVING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON
SURGE OVER THE SCS. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYER AIR AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE
LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
FORECAST TRACK.//