Tropical Storm GUCHOL Advisory Çar, 13.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE WAS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON A 121655Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON
KNES AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW WITH A SLIGHT PULL INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTH. THE SUBSIDENT
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST IS INHIBITING
OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES
THIS SUBSIDENT, DRY REGION IS WEAKENING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE STR WEAKENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH
OF CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT TROUGH TAU 72;
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING STR AND TURN MORE POLEWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH NOGAPS AS THE FASTEST RECURVER AND GFS, GFDN,
AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RECURVATURE TIMING AND POSITION DUE
TO THE MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO BASED ON THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS GUCHOL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
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