Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN Advisory Per, 22.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT IN A 211229Z ASCAT PASS. A 211941Z GPM
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CORE IN A 211545Z
AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS NOCK-TEN IS
LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.
   B. TS 30W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
DUE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, PRIOR TO REACHING THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 30W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN LUZON JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL; HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, THE CYCLONE COULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, MODELS DEPICT A COLD SURGE THAT WILL INCREASE THE VWS AND
ADVECT COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. TS 30W WILL TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
DUE TO COMPETING FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. DUE TO THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
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