Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Cu, 04.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR), IN ASSOCIATION WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM, DEPICTS
AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE POSITIONING OF THE LLCC HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
DUE TO THE BROAD EAST-WEST ELONGATION OF THE LLCC OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. A RECENT 031558Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE IS INDICATING
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTS THE EIR. BASED ON THE
RECENT INCREASE IN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, INDICATING
2.5/2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TS 08W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. MID-LATITUDE
TRANSITORY LOWS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR,
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT, OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, WITH TS 08W TURNING TO THE NORTH APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF
OKINAWA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD DRIFT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO IDENTIFY AND DECREASE IN CPA TO OKINAWA. TS 08W
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER VERY
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), WITH AN IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TURNING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY TAU 120 AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE
FROM A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN,
WHICH IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
105 KNOTS AT TAU 96 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 120 THE
INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND THE
START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN
NNNN