Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Cts, 05.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM WEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS CURVED BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041643Z
165BT MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED AN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS EYEWALL, BROKEN ONLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE
HAS DEVELOPED ITS OWN MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE WHICH IS PROVIDING A
HIGHLY-EFFECTIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AS THE CYCLONE MAKES THE POLEWARD TURN, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYSHU, JAPAN. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN. TY
08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DECREASING
SST AND, EVENTUALLY, LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN, THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER THAT IS
BIASED TOWARDS AN UNLIKELY WIDER TURN.//
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