MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS CURVED BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041643Z 165BT MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS EYEWALL, BROKEN ONLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ITS OWN MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE WHICH IS PROVIDING A HIGHLY-EFFECTIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE MAKES THE POLEWARD TURN, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYSHU, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DECREASING SST AND, EVENTUALLY, LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN, THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER THAT IS BIASED TOWARDS AN UNLIKELY WIDER TURN.// NNNN NNNN