Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Paz, 20.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAS BEGUN TO CURL AS IT FURTHER CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 191626Z AMSR-2
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED WRAP.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
ITS LIFESPAN. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH
DECREASING VWS AND THE ANTICIPATED OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE PLUS THE PERENNIALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MATMO WILL DRAG ACROSS CENTRAL TAIWAN,
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND FINALLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY END OF FORECAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT
OUTLIERS.//
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