MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 14// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENED BUT CONTINUED TO OBSCURE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY RING THAT IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE DEEPENED CONVECTION. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN AND THE TAIWAN STRAIT. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER LANDFALL. TY 10W WILL BE WELL INLAND BY TAU 96 AND THEN RE-CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. RAPID DECAYING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 10W WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE YELLOW SEA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN