MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE CORRESPONDING SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL-ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW. TS HALOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. EXPECT CONTINUAL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN
