Tropical Storm RAMMASUN Advisory Cu, 11.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW: ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES AT 05-10 KNOTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE A FULL-FLEDGED
TYPHOON AT 75 KNOTS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 09W WILL REACH AN EVEN WARMER POOL OF WATER
(32 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
SUSTAINED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE  A STRONG TYPHOON AT 95 KNOTS. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE AND
COMPACT NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, AN ERRATIC STORM MOTION MAY OCCUR
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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