Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Pzt, 21.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED BUT CONTINUED TO OBSCURE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY RING THAT IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE DEEPENED CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15 TO 25 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE
VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE
IS  TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48
AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN AND THE TAIWAN STRAIT. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE
WILL BE POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO
TURN POLEWARD AFTER LANDFALL. TY 10W WILL BE WELL INLAND BY TAU 96
AND THEN RE-CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. RAPID DECAYING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
LAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 10W WILL EMERGE
BACK OVER WATER IN THE YELLOW SEA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU
120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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