MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE THAT
IS ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151543Z F15 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY HALOLA IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, THE MODERATE TO HIGH VWS IS PREVENTING
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 01C WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS LEADING TO MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE
DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE CYCLONE GAINS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HALOLA WILL REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. SOME OF THE NUMERIC MODELS,
HOWEVER, INDICATE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS RECURVATURE. EXPECT
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE TAPS FURTHER INTO THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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