Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Çar, 15.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONVECTION
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 141316Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED, WITH
FRAGMENTED CONCENTRIC DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT 141737Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF TS 14W, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY
TO 15-20 KNOTS, AS EVIDENT FROM THE CDO OVER THE LLCC. STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO A NARROW, EAST-
WEST ORIENTED TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES NEAR 60
KNOTS, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSERVED IN EIR. TS 14W IS BEING STEERED IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TS KAI-TAK
IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LUZON AND
DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REGAIN INTENSITY OVER WATER WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (> 27
DEGREES CELSIUS) IN A REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VWS.
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MAY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A
NORTHWARD TRACK. BEYOND TAU 24, TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING, REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND MAINTAINING
INTO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, KAI-TAK WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING
A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (> 20 KNOTS VWS).
   C. BY TAU 72 TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND JUST NORTH OF HONG
KONG AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FRICTIONAL DRAG
AND THE LOSS OF THE OCEAN HEATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, WHICH IS A LEFT
OUTLIER TRACKING THE STORM WELL TO THE WEST OF HONG KONG AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  WBAR IS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER WITH A LANDFALL IN
CHINA WELL EAST OF HONG KONG. ALL OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A TRACK OVER NORTHERN LUZON AND LANDFALL
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON ANALYSIS
OF THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWING A SIMILAR
PICTURE WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING
DEPICTED FOR THE STR.//
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