Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Cts, 20.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A WARM SPOT ON THE
191718Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS IN A NEUTRAL POINT
JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO
15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO
THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU
24, TS 16W WILL DRAG ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN BEFORE
TURNING ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK INTO THE EASTERN CHINESE SEABOARD AS
THE STR BUILDS BACK. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL INLAND OVER
EASTERN CHINA. LOW VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ENHANCE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BEFORE
LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH
THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS FUNG-WONG WILL BE POISED TO EXIT THE CHINESE
COAST JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STR ANEW AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND BY END OF FORECAST, WILL BE A COLD-CORE LOW JUST SOUTH
OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA. THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE
YELLOW SEA AND INCREASED VWS WILL REDUCE 16W TO A 25-KNOT SYSTEM.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE JTWC
FORECAST, AFTERWARDS, THE MODEL TRACKERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY;
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF WHICH PROJECT A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE.//
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